Economy Simulations are Never Perfect

In ecology, there can be various mathematical models attempting to explain observed phenomena. Such models are not meant to be perfect, but can help us in understanding and predicting reality.

Similarly, in the business world, it is possible to construct ever more sophisticated mathematical models to simulate the dynamics of the economy. Such models are never perfect yet they do help us in understanding the dynamics of the economy and help us in prediction and thus decision making.

Building Mathematical Models to Understand the Dynamics of the Economy

In ecology, as with other sciences, it is useful to attempt to build mathematical models of the real world. One can start with very simplistic models, compare them with real life stats and see how closely they comply with results in the real world then refine the model to more closely reflect results observed in the real world. The mathematical model after several rounds of refinement still does not have to be perfect and does not have to provide us with the ability to create a perfect simulation of the real world yet is still useful in making us understand the dynamics of the real world and grasp a great part of its complexity. It can also help in prediction and to some extent in control.

Similarly, in the business world, even if it was not possible to create perfect models of the economy and the markets in which businesses are working, it is still useful to attempt to create mathematical models for them that reflect the real world dynamics of businesses as closely as possible and as much as the data available would allow. Such mathematical models can be used for decision making and help one understand the economy and dynamics of the business world much better thus aiding in effective decision making once again.

Mathematical Models of Business Competition

In the science of ecology, it is possible to establish mathematical models to approximate the effect of competition on a population or community of living organisms. Although no mathematical model of competition would be perfect, yet such models can help us understand, and to some extent predict, the behavior of populations and communities of living organisms.

Likewise, in the business world, it is possible to formulate mathematical models to simulate competition within a market or a whole economy. Despite such models never being perfect, yet that can help us get insights about the dynamics of the market or whole economy.

Intuition Vs. Modeling in Business Prediction

In ecology and other sciences, mathematical models can be constructed to help in prediction and in understanding observed phenomena. No model is perfect. A model is just a way to explain the observations available and squeeze them into a coherent generalized form.

In the business world, no model would be perfect to. If it was possible to construct a perfect model in business, then all we had to do is create a computer program, provide it with such model and feed it with data and it would predict perfectly the stock market and take perfect business decisions for us without our intervention. This is not only not present now, but is not possible to ever reach. The reasons this scenario is impossible to reach is because we can never create a perfect model and we cannot get all the data needed in the real world for a 'perfect' model to operate on. Nevertheless, we can still use models to help us understand the business world and guide our decisions. The feedback we get after applying the model can help us keep refining it. It is the lack of perfect predictability in the business world that makes all the fun. In business, experience and intuition are of very high value that cannot be compensated for with academic or ready models alone.

Software that Predicts Plant Growth?

It would be nice to come up with predictive systems that can provides estimates of the number of modules (leaves, branches, flowers and so on) of a plant that would be growing provided a set of conditions such as resources of water, nutrients and conditions of solar radiation and temperature. Such models may be statistical. One can use machine learning such as neural networks or artificial intelligence to build such models. That would be an interesting project to pursue. Probably there are already such systems existing, it would be still interesting to pursue this more and expand on them.

Metabolism, growth, development and size

Ideas

Thoughts

1. Science can help predict plant growth and production (equations, variables: temperature).
2. Is that why Africans are tall (the high temperature, leading to a high rate of metabolism)?
3. That's why in hot climates plants grow fast and forests of lush vegetation exist. (Water? Deserts?)
4. That's why my plants grew noticeably during hot days.
5. Prediction is amazing for size and development for plants, in agriculture!

Do

1. Do experiments in balcony on plants.

Digest

• How individuals respond to temperature:
• impaired function and ultimately death at the upper and lower extremes
• a functional range between the extremes
• an optimum within the functional range
• "For each 10°C rise in temperature the rate of biological enzymatic processes doubles, and thus appears as an exponential curve on a plot of rate against temperature."
• Temperature affects:
• rates of growth: increases in mass (linear)
• rates of development: progression through lifecycle stages (linear)
• final body size
• Day-degree: number of days to develop X degrees above development threshold
• Physiological time: a combination of time and temperature required for an organism to develop
• "Together, the rates of growth and development determine the final size of an organism."
• "For a given rate of growth, a faster rate of development will lead to smaller final size."
• Temperature-size rule:
• Development increases more rapidly with temperature than does growth
• Thus final size decreases with rising temperature
• Effects of temperature on growth, development and size has practical importance for prediction.

Question

The effect of temperature on metabolism is quite interesting.